— 45 IREC Farmers' Newsletter No. 200 — Spring 2018 Dale Grey Seasonal Risk Agronomist, Biosecurity and Agriculture Services Branch Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources , Victoria This article is based on a paper presented by the author at the GRDC Grain Research Update (Moama), 26 July 2018 QUICK TAKE l  The 2018 season is delicately poised, for both winter and summer crops. l  At the time of writing, there is no El Nino but there are indicators that one could form. However plenty of random things need to happen first. l  The Indian Ocean has started playing unfair with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole like cooling off Indonesia and associated lack of cloud; stronger pressure needs to decrease, or the effect could be similar to either phenomena, i.e. El Nino or positive Indian Ocean Dipole. l  Catchments of the south-eastern Murray– Darling Basin are influenced negatively by high pressure, particularly during winter. WHAT’S THE LIKELIHOOD OF GOULBURN, MURRAY AND MURRUMBIDGEE RIVER INFLOWS IN 2018? — 45 IREC Farmers' Newsletter No. 200 — Spring 2018 Catchment inflows for 2018